A Weekly Recap of All Things Resources to Friday, February 21st, 2025
‘That’s a Wrap’
By Rod Blake
As the investors, traders, brokers and portfolio managers prepared themselves for an American Presidents Day and Canadian Family Day shortened week of market activity – two items of note stood out amongst all of the rest. One – the American S&P 500 Exchange at 6,115 and NASDAQ Index at 20,027, with last week’s rally, were once again only a few points from breaking through their respective all-time closing highs of 6,119 and 20,035 set a few weeks ago. Two – was last Friday’s sharp selloff in the gold, silver and copper markets and the TSX Venture Exchange a sign that the New Year’s rally for commodities and the junior market was coming to an end?
The way I see it – The senior markets seem to have shaken off the uncertainty of the recent tariff rhetoric and are now taking a wait and see approach as the tariff deadlines get pushed further and further out. There is also a new air of optimism that a settlement of the now 3-year Ukraine & Russia war is on the horizon. We may soon know if this leads to higher highs in the American big cap markets.
When markets change as abruptly to the downside as the gold (-1.5%), silver (-0.83%), copper (-2.94%) and TSX Venture Exchange (-1.23%) did last Friday – one would be well advised to pay attention. To quote economist John Maynard Keynes – “When facts change, I change my mind – what do you do sir?” Now, it takes more than one day’s activity to confirm an end to this nice bull market (+11.72%) that junior investors have been enjoying since Christmas – but last Friday’s negative action should make one sit up and pay attention. As I’ve stated earlier – the traditional bull market for precious metals and the Venture Exchange usually plays out sometime in the first quarter. This is not set in stone and can vary based on world events such as we’re seeing today. One sharp day of decline does not a correction make, and this could just be investors going to cash ahead of a long weekend or locking in profits after a nice run to the upside. So while it may be too soon to call the junior bull market over, it is a time to exercise some caution and not be chasing any highflyers. Cash may be king in the weeks ahead…
And with that the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Exchange confirmed the American big cap bull market was intact by rising to respective new closing highs of 6,144 and 20,056.
The commodities bull was also reaffirmed with silver rising to close at a new 4-month high of US$33.04 a troy ounce (t oz), while gold bullion reached a new all-time closing high of US$2,948 a t oz.
All of which helped the share price of B2Gold Corp. ‘BTO-T’ & ‘BTG-N.A’ to gain $0.22 or 5.82% to close at a new 3-month high of $4.00 after the Vancouver, BC based miner issued an improved 2025 guidance.
Similiarly – SSR Mining Inc. ‘SSRM-T & Q’ stock rose by $1.69 or 12.74% to close at a new 2-year high of $14.96 after the Denver, CO producer pleased the street with the company’s 4th-quarter and full 2024 results.
Zinc rose to close at a new 1-month high of US$1.33 a pound (lb).
Going the other way – Uranium fell to a new 1½-year closing low of US$64.30 a pound (lb).
Which encouraged investors to sell the price of Denison Mines Corp. ‘DML-T’ & ‘DNN-N.A’ and uranium icon Cameco Corporation ‘CCO-T’ & ‘CCJ-N’ shares’ down to respective new 5-month closing lows of $2.21 and $61.87.
Hudbay Minerals Inc. ‘HBM-T & N’ shares’ fell by $1.19 or 13.31% to a new 5-month low of $11.01 after the Toronto, ON copper/gold miner failed to meet the markets’ expectations with the company’s 2025 guidance.
NGEz Minerals Ltd. ‘NGEX-T’ reported that drill hole DPDH024 from the company’s Lunahuasi copper-gold-silver project in San Juan, Argentina returned 75.45 metres (m) of 4.95% copper equivalent (CuEq).
Natural gas rose to close at a new 2-year high of US$4.35 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
This as the key Baker Hughes Petroleum Rig Count reported the number of active American drilling rigs rose by 4-rigs over the week to 592, down by 34-rigs from this time last year. Up north – the number of Canadian active rigs fell by 1-rig during the week to 244, up by 13-rigs from one year ago.
The price of lumber rose to a new 21/3-year closing high of US$621 per 1,000 board feet (mbf).
Nikola Corporation ‘NKLA-Q’ stock plunged lower by $0.30 or 39.13% to close at US$0.4662 after the Phoenix, AZ based zero-emission truck manufacturer applied for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
The CRB Commodities Index rose to close at a new 16½-year high of 383.
Natural gas, gold bullion and lumber pulled commodities higher over the week, while uranium and crude oil were the greatest drag.
The U.S. Dollar Index or ‘DXY’ fell to a new 2-month closing low of 106.39.
After an upbeat start to the shortened week – all of the North American Indexes went negative and were underwater going into another uncertain weekend.
For the Week – the DJI lost 2.51% to 43,428, with the S&P 500 down 1.67% to 6,013, and the NASDAQ off 2.51% to 19,524. In Canada – the TSX fell 1.32% to 25,147 and the TSX Venture lost 0.78% to 635.
The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX gained 23.21% to 18.21.
With currencies – the Canadian dollar lost 0.47% to US$0.7025, and the U.S. Dollar Index ‘DXY’ fell 0.31% to 106.64.
With commodities – gold bullion gained 1.80% to US$2,936, and silver rose 1.21% to US$32.55, while copper fell 1.94% to US$4.54, and lithium lost 0.09% to US$10,496. Crude oil lost 0.58% to US$70.24, while natural gas gained 14.21% to US$4.26, and uranium fell 3.85% to US$64.90. With soft commodities – lumber gained 1.80% to US$621.
Overall – the CRB Commodities Index rose 1.06% to 373.