Metals & Critical Minerals – 2025 Year in Review

Metal Price Leaders, 2025

Silver +148%, Platinum +126% and Hafnium +115% were the leading performers across the metals complex in 2025.

A structural supply deficit combined with soaring industrial demand from green energy, EV and AI applications caught up with the silver market in 2025. As of January 1^st, 2026 China, which is a pivotal supplier of refined silver at the margin, has restricted exports of silver, tungsten and antimony to a short list of only 44 controlled companies.

In November 2025, silver was formally added to the US Geological Survey Critical Minerals List.

~ 75% of global silver supply is sourced as a byproduct of mining other metals, a condition which results in price inelasticity of supply for silver markets. Increasing prices cannot be met by increasing supplies in a timely fashion resulting in projections for further price pressures into 2026.

The platinum market has experienced its third consecutive year of supply deficit in 2025, and the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) is projecting significant shortages and price pressures to continue in 2026. 75% ~ 80% of the world’s new platinum supply comes from South African mines, with a further ~ 12% sourced from Russia. Power shortages, operational issues and labor disputes have resulted in lower output from South Africa which is by far the world’s largest supplier of the metal.

Platinum Group Metals are found all Critical Mineral Lists external to South Africa and Russia.

Total assets held in the world’s 21 Silver ETFs and 6 Platinum ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) increased markedly in 2025 (by +199% and +167% respectively). The increase in AUM (Assets Under Management) for both silver and platinum ETF products was a result of two things: price increases for the metals, and an increase in the total number of shares outstanding for the ETFs. The rising count for shares outstanding demonstrates new buying and increasing investor allocations to these investment products.

Hafnium (Hf) is a minor metal used today primarily in the nuclear industry within control rods for nuclear reactors. Hafnium also has growing applications as a constituent metal in microprocessors and semiconductors. Chinese export controls announced 9^th October, 2025 include refined hafnium which tightens supply into a market which is expanding as a result of rising demand from the global nuclear renaissance, and also from new hafnium applications in memory capacity and storage technologies being driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) requirements.

Refined hafnium (Hf) is a byproduct of zirconium (Zr) beneficiation, usually in a ratio of 50:1 (zirconium to hafnium). This condition results in price inelasticity of supply for hafnium. Hafnium market supply-demand imbalances are now projected to continue well into 2026.

Hafnium (Hf) is on several Critical Mineral Lists including the list published and updated by the US Geological Survey.

Metal Price Laggards, 2025

Softness in the Chinese construction industry, which accounts for almost ~ 50% of global zircon demand, has contributed to a two-year slump in zirconium prices. Despite this, Research and Markets estimates that the zirconium market grew from $1.8 B USD in 2024 to $1.94 B USD in 2025, and is projected to continue advancing at a CAGR of 8.5% to reach $3.45 B USD by 2032. Robust growth for 2026 and beyond is anticipated from growing applications in advanced ceramics, nuclear technologies and high-performance coatings.

Zirconium (Zr) is on several Critical Mineral Lists including the list published and updated by the US Geological Survey.

Silicon prices have been progressively decreasing as a result of oversupply and market substitute developments. Trade measures and the application of tariffs may influence this dynamic in 2026.

Silicon (Si) is on several Critical Mineral Lists including the list published and updated by the US Department of Energy.

Metal Price Changes, 2025
 

Critical Minerals, 2025

On October 9^th, 2025 China openly weaponized the international metals trade. On this date China’s Ministry of Commerce, under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), announced a sweeping expansion of export controls on rare earth materials, extractive process technologies and dual-use items. Within weeks of the announcement, the US and Australia had signed the $8.5 billion US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework Agreement, the G7 nations had launched a Critical Minerals Production Alliance, and the US had signed Memorandums on critical minerals with Malaysia (26.Oct), Thailand (26.Oct), Japan (11.Nov), Saudi Arabia (19.Nov) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (4.Dec).

On October 31^st, 2025 the Canadian government announced plans to stockpile critical minerals and on November 14^th, 2025 the US Geological Survey Critical Minerals List was formally updated to include silver and 59 other metals and minerals deemed critical to national security and economic development priorities. The landscape for internationally defined critical minerals is evolving rapidly. Great power rivalry and resource nationalism are manifest through critical mineral competition in the third decade of the 21^st Century.

National critical mineral priorities were first identified during World War I when the USA categorized tin, nickel, platinum, nitrates and potash as ‘War Minerals’ requiring ration controls due to wartime scarcity. Mineral priorities subsequently evolved into institutional policy with the US Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpiling Act of 1939, which was passed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt on June 7^th, 1939.

After World War II, the Soviet Union began to classify minerals such as manganese and uranium as strategic inputs for heavy industry which were identified as being required for defense of the Union (USSR, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics). By the time of the oil shocks in the early 1970’s, the OECD was coordinating research on supply chain risks and resource vulnerability for member economies. In the period 2008-2011 the European Union (EU) became the first multinational bloc to formalize a Critical Raw Materials Act (CRM). In recent years, critical mineral priorities have returned along side of concerns relating to supply chain resiliency.

37 Critical Mineral Lists, 2025

We have seen rapid development of, and recalibration of constituents for, international Critical Mineral Lists in the decade leading up to the end of 2025. Strategic importance has been highlighted by the first publication of the US Defense Logistics Agency List in 2022, and the subsequent publication of the first NATO List in 2024. Recently evidenced supply chain risks and the intensifying requirements of a global energy transition support further rapid developments in the critical minerals landscape going forward.

	G7		BRICS		OTHER
			China		NATO
	US Geological Survey		India		European Union
	US Department of Energy		Brazil		African Union
	US Defense Logistics Agency		Russian Federation
			Indonesia		Australian Critical Minerals
	Germany		South Africa		Australian Strategic Minerals
	Japan				Spain
	France				South Korea
	UK				Turkey
					Norway
	Canada				Malaysia
	Ontario				Colombia
	Quebec				Finland
	Manitoba				Nigeria
	Nova Scotia				Peru
	Newfoundland and Labrador				New Zealand
					Ukraine
	Critical Minerals Institute				Democratic Republic of Congo

Summary:

• Platinum Group Metals are on all lists external to South Africa and Russia.
• Rare Earths are on all lists external to China.
• The US Defense Logistics Agency List and the NATO List, first published in 2022 and 2024 respectively, highlight an evolving national security priority.
• China first banned exports of Antimony, Gallium and Germanium in December 2024, and materially expanded critical mineral export limits on 9^th October, 2025.
• China maintains a material advantage in mineral processing 19 of the world’s 20 leading critical minerals.
• This year’s lead performing metal, Silver, was added to the US Geological Survey List in November, 2025.
• Copper is found on almost all international critical mineral lists.

 

 

 

 

Reported by: Christopher J. Berlet B.A.Sc.(Mining), CFA                           Supported By: Khadijah Samnani, Analyst 

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